What About Blue Origin and the US Military?
Another mitigating factor could be the rapid acceleration of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket launch cadence. Henry said Quilty adopted a conservative forecast, predicting eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030.
“I’d be happy to be proven wrong,” he said. “And Blue has been in development for so long, they could come out of the gate swinging.”
Blue Origin is building production capacity for up to 150 upper stages annually, though it will take time to launch such a large rocket at a high rate.
A final wild card is the US military. The current phase of the national security launch program has two lanes. Lane 1 is for missions with a higher risk tolerance — any company that has successfully launched a rocket at least once is eligible to bid, currently including Falcon rockets, New Glenn, and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, with a new generation of medium-lift rockets expected to join within the next year or two. Lane 2 is reserved for SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.
Earlier this year, the US Space Force announced a dramatic increase in forecast demand for both Lane 1 (from an estimated 30–60 launches to about 170) and Lane 2 (from 54 launches to 79 launches). These missions would be ordered between 2025 and 2029.
This surge in military launch demand was not included in Quilty’s calculations, Henry said, because he believes the US military will be able to compel SpaceX to perform launches it deems national priorities. He also noted that SpaceX is already building a number of these satellites, such as the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator constellation.
“I think the US government will compel them to do this,” Henry said. “SpaceX is already building a non-trivial number of these satellites.”
